It’s quite obvious what’s happening here. Most critics have now seen Brendan Fraser’s performance in “The Whale” and they are quickly realizing that his rise to the top was unearned hype.
Not to take away anything from Fraser’s work as a 600-pound gay man in “The Whale,” but he’s just not that impressive in it. You want impressive? Watch Austin Butler in “Elvis” or Colin Farrell in “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Now, that’s great acting.
I hate to say it, but those standing ovations Fraser garnered all of awards season? Those were pat-on-your back, we’re here for you, affirmations to the actor. Those kinds of accolades can only take you so far in terms of winning an actual award.
Don’t get me wrong, the “sympathy vote” will be an all-powerful thing for Fraser to inevitably get that Best Actor nomination, which he will, but winning? That’s a whole other story.
Meanwhile, Colin Farrell is winning every critics acting award and people are still talking about Austin Butler’s performance, and it’s been more than 6 months since “Elvis” was released. Why on God’s green earth would they not be the actual frontrunners?
You also have Bill Nighy (Living) knocking at their doors with what is a refined and beautifully subtle performance as a solemn man who learns he’s dying. It’s the kind of acting that, if seen by enough voters, will get votes. Plenty of them.
Then there’s Tom Cruise, who used his charisma and physical prowess to literally save American moviemaking (for now). He held up the industry on his shoulders and showed us how it could still be done. Cruise is one of the last remaining old-school actors in Hollywood and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a Best Actor nomination for “Top Gun: Maverick.”
You also have Hugh Jackman (The Son) hanging around in the back somewhere. He received a Golden Globe nomination this morning and the male acting category is weak this year that he might maybe sneak into the final five in place of Cruise.
BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, “Elvis”
Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
Bill Nighy, “Living”
Tom Cruise, “Top Gun: Maverick”
Hugh Jackman, “The Son”
Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”
Gabriel LaBelle, “The Fabelmans”
Adam Sandler, “Hustle”
Jeremy Pope, “The Inspection”
Remember when, back in August, we learned “The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” would be playing in only around 350 U.S. theaters, "maybe fewer"? Well, it's fewer. A lot fewer.