‘The Fabelmans' Released. Here Are The ACTUAL Best Picture Race Rankings.

Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” is now in New York and L.A. theaters. Its been exactly two months since its TIFF world premiere where Spielberg’s film was crowned the frontrunner of the Best Picture race. The steam hasn’t faded either. It currently sits at a cozy 85 on Metacritic (Based on 27 reviews). It’s well worth a look, flaws and all — no cinephile would dare miss Spielberg’s ode to his childhood.

‘Fabelmans’ will go wide in a few weeks, it’s currently tracking at an opening of around $6-7 million dollars. Not earth-shattering, but also not terrible for this kind of movie. I do wonder how mainstream audiences, some of whom might not be fervent movie history buffs, will greet this film.

Many questions still remain in the race. I’ve narrowed them down to the bare bones essential:

1) Will “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” become just the fourth animated film to get a Best Picture nomination? Kohn/Thompson seem to be banging the drums for it, but the animation format isn’t the only obstacle for del Toro’s film to overcome — some are neglecting the fact that the film has a whopping seven musical numbers, which could easily turn off more than a few voters.

2) Will Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon” deliver the goods when it is screened next Monday? The buzz is great, but the trailer instilled some doubt into some people. This is a big, ambitious swing for Chazelle — a 188 minute epic about 1920s Hollywood debauchery that came close to nabbing an NC-17 rating.

3) Is “Everything Everywhere All At Once” a legitimate contender? Many, including myself, are more or less in agreement that this peculiar sci-fi hipster movie will be celebrated by a loud sector of the AMPAS voting brass. However, despite the consistent buzz, the demographic for the token Oscar voter is 50+ years old, white and male — that could be a major obstacle for this film, which doesn’t seem to be as well-liked by that voting bloc.

4) What about James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water”? It should be screened for press and industry a few weeks after “Babylon”. The 190 minute runtime hints at something grand in scale and scope. However, will it be met with a big shrug? Have people moved on from “Avatar”? It’s been 13 years since the last one was released and, although there are massive expectations behind it, I don’t really sense immense enthusiasm for the sequel.

5) What about “Emancipation”? I think it is safe to assume that Will Smith won’t get nominated, but how about the film itself? Antoine Fuqua has a wonky track record as a director, but Apple is betting all their marbles on this one. This will be campaigned heavily starting in December and beyond. It’s not like people won’t be talking about it either. Smith brings publicity, good and bad, but maybe we’re setting our expectations a tad too high for a film directed by a filmmaker whose best work to date has been … “Training Day”?

I’ll add another question: What’s the deal with Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale”? The reviews have been decent, but its campaign has primarily centered around Brendan Fraser and all of the standing ovations he’s been getting at screenings of the film. The film itself is stagey, taking place in a single location, but it’s a total weepie, something that’ll bring out passion in voters. We’ll have a better picture of its status when it gets released during the second week of December.

With ‘Wakanda Forever’ out of the way, I’ve managed to narrow down the Best Picture race to just 25 films. Best Picture can now be divided into four categories.

LOCKS/NEAR-LOCKS:

(1) “The Fabelmans”
(2) “The Banshees of Inisherin”
(3) “Top Gun: Maverick”
(4) “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
(5) “TAR”

CONTENDERS:

(6) “Babylon”
(7) “Elvis”
(8) “Women Talking”
(9) “The Whale”
(10) “Avatar: The Way of the Water”
(11) “The Woman King”
(12) “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
(13) “Guillermo del Toro’s “Pinocchio”

POSSIBILITIES:
(14) “Triangle of Sadness”
(15) “All Quiet on the Western Front”
(16) “Till”
(17) “Close”
(18) “Living”
(19) “Empire of Light”
(20) ”Thirteen Lives”

LONGSHOTS:

(21) “She Said”
(22) “Decision to Leave”
(23) “Armageddon Time”
(24) “Emancipation”
(25) “I Wanna Dance With Somebody”