Anne Thompson lost me in her latest Best Director predictions when she decided to include, at the very top of her contenders, Wakanda Forever’s Ryan Coogler. That movie is DEAD. Hear me, it’s kaput. Fine, it made loads of money this weekend, but the reviews just don’t justify a Best Picture nomination, let alone one for Best Director.
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) is definitely in. That’s honestly the only lock I have right now. Maybe Todd Field (TÁR) as well. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) is almost there, but he was snubbed in 2017 for ‘Three Billboards.’ The rest is all up in the air.
With “Babylon” polarizing industry attendees last night, Spielberg might very well win his third Oscar for his most personal film. I mean, is there anyone else who can actually compete against him this year? I can’t think of anybody with the kind of momentum that he has. ‘Fabelmans’ might, for some reason, not end up winning Best Picture, but don’t bet against Spielberg losing.
‘Fabelmans’ comes from the heart. Stories of Spielberg crying dozens of times on the set have already made the rounds everywhere, it’s no longer about whether the film and its director actually deserve the prize, it’s become about honoring a legacy and a man who has done so much for the industry. That’s the Oscars for you.
It’s a very messy thing this year’s Best Director race, mostly because we’re not really sure how the AMPAS voters will react to films like Sarah Polley “Women Talking,” Daniels Scheinert and Daniel Kwan’s “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” Gina Prince-Bythehood “The Woman King,” and Baz Luhrmann’s “Elvis.” There’s also “Avatar: The Way of Water” which could have James Cameron heralded again as a visionary, but the film doesn’t screen for another few weeks and there are plenty of skeptics out there.
On the non-US side, you have Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Bardo), and Edward Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front”). Park took the directing prize at Cannes this year, Iñárritu’s film seems to be well-liked by industry voters, and Berger’s WWII drama is killing it on Netflix.
Then there’s the case for what Joseph Kosinski did in “Top Gun: Maverick.” A technical prowess that even the film’s detractors might appreciate. The kind of filmmaking in ‘Maverick’ is not easy to pull off, you need absolute concentration and skills beyond just camera set-ups and positioning. People also have nothing but good words to say about Kosinski, whose been around now for more than a dozen years. People tend to forget Kosinski “Tron: Legacy,” another technical marvel. Don’t discount him.
With that recap, I currently have —
1) Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
2) Todd Field (TAR)
3) Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4) Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
5) James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
CONTENDERS
6) Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
7) Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
8) Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
9) Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
10) Rian Johnson (Glass Onion)
POTENTIALS
11) Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)
12) Damien Chazelle (Babylon)
13) Guillermo del Toro (Pinocchio)
14) Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
15) Chinonye Chukwu (Till)
Edward Berger seems to have settled on what comes next. His Lance Armstrong biopic, starring Austin Butler, is now holding casting calls, with production eyed for January.