Is Kristen Stewart No Longer the Best Actress Frontrunner?

I’ve already tackled Spencer’s floundering box-office numbers. It has just made $7 million domestically on a budget of more than twice that.

During the early fall, Kristen Stewart was untouchable and the clear frontrunner for Best Actress. Now? I’m not too sure. Things have changed, her narrative has faltered. Yes, as we speak, she’s still the de facto frontrunner, but that’s just because the actress contenders this year are quite weak and no one performance has really managed to stand out as the one to beat except for hers.

There are numerous contenders that have been grabbing K-Stew’s leftover momentum these last few few weeks, those include Frances McDormand in “The Tragedy of Macbeth.” Although not necessarily the age that Lady Macbeth was in Shakespeare’s play, the three-time Oscar-winner nails the role of the devious wife goading her husband to commit butchery in order to become Queen of Scotland.

Wait until voters get to see Olivia Colman in “The Lost Daughter.” Her performance is wryly brilliant. The more her Leda thinks back on her past, the more she starts to crack, remembering her own struggles and inability to fully embrace motherhood. It’s a performance that deserves awards, a darkly humorous tour-de-force that riskingly tackles the selfish nature that some mothers struggle with.

Lady Gaga’s NYFCC win gave her that extra push to get nominated in “House of Gucci.” The question remains whether other critics groups will reward her the same way. It’s a tonally messy performance from the pop singer, and I would refrain from putting her in the top 5 if it weren’t for the New York win. My best guess is that the NYFCC award will be as good as it gets and that it might be her one and only acting win this awards season — then again, crazier things have happened.

In “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” Jessica Chastain completely transforms herself to play popular and eccentric televangelist Tammy Faye Baker. Chastain is perfect for the role, forget about the prosthetics for a second, she truly gets what Faye was all about — a walking contradiction of faith, acceptance and greed. Critics may have been lukewarm towards the film, but you can’t take your eyes off Chastain. She steals the show.

I thought Nicole Kidman was miscast in “Being the Ricardos,” but pundits who attended the initial DGA/SAG screenings for the film couldn’t stop raving about her. We all know what prosthetics can do in your hunt for Oscar gold and Kidman’s physical transformation here has been noted. It’s a very showy and Hollywood-centric role from the actress. A fifth Oscar nomination is a real possibility.

I thought the chemistry between Rachel Zegler and Ansel Elgort in “West Side Story” was cold as ice, and yet Zegler delivers a star-making performance all on her own.

Jennifer Hudson’s Aretha Franklin in “Respect” has had a weird road. A summer release, right before fall festival season, was a risky move on the part of MGM, but it might pay off as the studio has been campaigning Hudson hard and making the film available for anyone and everyone to see. Also, as we speak, she’s the only African-American contender in the category, so that could also bump her up with voters looking for more inclusivity on the Actress front.

Alana Haim is absolutely lovely in “Licorice Pizza.” An acting newbie, the singer, and now actress, carries the film in the kind of role that demands her to flex her acting chops. There’s an abundance of complexities in her performance as Alana, a young woman who doesn’t know what she wants in life, both on the personal and professional front.

Finally, Sony Pictures Classic has made it quite hard to see “Paralell Mothers.” I didn’t get any screener links or even a press invite for the film, but was lucky enough to see it at a film festival. Penelope Cruz’s emotionally resonant performance deserves attention — it’s a full throttled depiction of a woman confronting a sheer maternal nightmare. 

As it stands, this is how the race stacks up:

FRONTRUNNERS:

Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)

CONTENDERS:

Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Penelope Cruz (Paralel Mothers)
Reinate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of MacBeth)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)

LONGSHOTS:

Halle Berry (Bruised)
Tessa Thompson (Passing)
Jodie Comer (The Last Duel)
Emilia Jones (CODA)