What Movies Might Show Up at the Fall Festivals?

With the Toronto, Venice, and Telluride Film Festivals set to (maybe) happen in 3 months time, and with hundreds upon hundreds of film productions having been stalled from March to June due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the fall festival circuit this year will be one of the most unpredictable in history. There is absolutely no way of knowing if physical events could even be held, with only Toronto hinting at a potential digital side to their festival, as health hazards interfere with the planned proceedings.

The Cannes Film Festival made a statement last week by releasing 56 stamp-approved films that would have made it to this year’s canceled edition, which is usually held every May. Missing from this year’s “lineup” were much some anticipated films, such as Leos Carax’s “Annette,” Paul Verhoeven’s “Benedetta,” Apichatpong Weerasethakul’s “Memoria,” Nadav Lapid’s “Ahed’s Knee,” and Mia Hansen-Love’s “Bergman’s Island.” Why were these titles conspicuously absent? Because rumor has it they are opting for the 2021 edition of the festival instead. That means we will likely not see these films premiering this fall at TIFF or Venice because they would rather premiere at Cannes next May. Fair enough.

Then there’s Netflix. The streaming giant has stated that they will not be bringing any of their Oscar-bait titles to any fall festivals this year. That was seen as a major blow for TIFF, who was likely going to bank, whether digitally or at a physical event, to screen such hotly-anticipated Netflix titles as David Fincher’s “Mank,” Charlie Kaufman’s “I’m Thinking of Ending Things,” Antonio Campos’ “The Devil All the Time,” Ron Howard’s “Hillbilly Elegy,” and Ben Wheatley’s “Rebecca.”

Then there are the titles that were still in the middle of filming before the lockdown happened, originally aiming for a fall festival slot and now potentially missing the deadlines for festival submission. These include Paul Schrader’s “The Card Counter,” Ridley Scott’s “The Last Duel,” Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley,” Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune,” Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story,” and Hayao Miyazaki’s “How Do You Live?”

So, after all of that, what do we have to look forward to this coming fall? The following movies have finished filming and are currently either completed or far into post-production:

Ammonite (Francis Lee)
Soul (Pete Docter)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson)
C'mon C'mon (Mike Mills)
Next Goal Wins (Taika Waititi)
On The Rocks (Sofia Coppola)
News of the World (Paul Greengrass)
Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)
Stillwater (Tom McCarthy)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)
After Yang (Kogonada)
Deep Water (Adrian Lyne)
Those That Wish Me Dead (Taylor Sheridan)
Respect (Liesl Tommy)
Breaking News in Yuba County (Tate Taylor)
Cherry (Joe and Anthony Russo)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Michael Showalter)
Harry Haft (Barry Levinson)
Halloween Kills (David Gordon Green)
Happiest Season (Clea DuVall)
Prisoner 760 (Kevin Macdonald)
City Hall (Wiseman)
Mona Lisa and the Blood Moon (Amirpour)

That’s it, for now. And it doesn’t even mean that we are actually going to see these movies show up at film festivals. Many of these could, and actually are very likely to, be postponed until 2021. Although movie theaters are starting to slowly reopen around the country, severe restrictions are being instilled for social distancing effects. With chains only allowing 25-50% capacity for each individual screening, it’ll be hard to fully justify many of these titles to be released until there is some kind of vaccine or thorough herd immunity throughout the population.

Foreign titles might fare better this fall, with many having no problem with digital premieres at film festivals and then theatrical releases in 2021. Of the 56 Cannes-approved titles already mentioned, these seem the likeliest to premiere at TIFF, Venice, NYFF and Telluride:

Ete 85 (Francois Ozon)
True Mothers (Naomi Kawase)
Lover’s Rock (Steve McQueen)
Mangrove (Steve McQueen)
Druk (Thomas Vinterberg)
DNA (Maïwenn)
Heaven: To the Land of Happiness (Im Sang-Soo)
Peninsula (Yeon Sang-Ho)
In the Dusk (Sharunas Barats)
El Olvido Que Seremos (Fernando Trueba)
Des Hommes (Lucas Belvaux)

So, yes, a fall festival season can potentially happen, but it would be one of the weirdest and most eccentric in recent memory. This would certainly dampen the Oscar race, as a lack of contenders would almost result in an asterisk having to be placed next to the winners of the 2021 ceremony (that is, if it even occurs). There has been a slim picking of contenders thus far in 2020, no doubt due to hundreds of films being delayed because of the pandemic, but as it stands, the notable standout films for Oscar consideration have been Eliza Hittman’s “Never Rarely Sometimes Always,” and Kelly Reichardt’s “First Cow.” I know, pathetic.