Every Best Picture contender has now screened for press in major cities. So now comes the fun part, where we try to assess it all. I presume this year we will again get 8-10 nominees vying for the Best Picture prize, which means that of the 12 frontrunners listed below, probably 3-4 will be ousted from nabbing a nomination.
Just a week ago, we lacked a frontrunner, a film which the “experts” could altogether align with and say “THAT is our Best Picture winner!” Of course, it all changed when Sam Mendes’ “1917” screened in Los Angeles, New York, and Boston these last few days. Mendes’ film is now the de facto frontrunner. Its 86 Metascore (based on 11 reviews) is a good enough reason to hop on the bandwagon.
Why this sudden urge to qualify “1917” as the frontrunner? Well, because before it screened this past weekend, every other movie vying for the Best Picture prize had a handicap going into the race. “The Irishman” has a rather uncommercial length (3 and a half hours) and is being distributed by Netflix (which many Oscar voters have a bias towards), “Once Upon A Time in Hollywood” had major buzz at Cannes but that seems to have slightly dwindled since then, South Korea’s “Parasite” is the most universally loved movie but a foreign movie has NEVER won Best Picture, “Marriage Story,” although critically-acclaimed, is still a Noah Baumbach movie, which means it stands almost no chance at winning over the more conservative-minded moviegoers within the Academy’s voting body, plus there have already been reports of Academy members walking out of screenings.
Don’t get me started on Taika Waittit’s “Jojo Rabbit,” which, although it won the coveted People’s Choice Award at TIFF, is not well-liked by critics and has had its momentum stunted by far worthier films since it won that award. Can it still come out of nowhere and become a major threat? Yes, of course, but for the time being it is in a state of limbo and will not be much of a contender unless it garners a Producer’s Guild Award nomination.
FRONTRUNNERS:
1) 1917 (Universal)
2) The Irishman (Netflix)
3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
4) Parasite (Neon)
5) Marriage Story (Netflix)
6) Joker (Warner Bros.)
7) Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
8) Little Women (Sony)
9) Bombshell (Lionsgate)
10) The Farewell (A24)
11) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
12) The Two Popes (Netflix)
POSSIBILITIES:
Waves (A24)
Booksmart (Annapurna)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)
Ford v. Ferrari (Fox)
Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
Hustlers (STX)
Queen & Slim (Universal)
Uncut Gems (A24)
Rocketman (Paramount)
Judy (Roadside Attractions)
LONG SHOTS:
Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
The Lion King (Disney)
Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
Toy Story 4 (Disney)
Honey Boy (Amazon)
The Lighthouse (A24)
The Aeronauts (Amazon)
The Report (Amazon)
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Ad Astra (Fox)
A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
The Good Liar (Warner Bros.)
Dark Waters (Focus Features)
STILL TO SEE:
Cats (Universal)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney)
I can confirm that Joel Coen’s “Jack of Spades” is based on Frances Frederica Montrésor’s 1901 novel “The Alien: A Story of Middle Age.” It’s a ghost story. A gothic mystery.