Best Picture: Will it Be ‘The Irishman' vs ‘1917'?

It’s December and many critics groups are announcing their awards at, what feels like, a relentless pace. What we do know is that the two most important groups that have announced their winners so far, the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Circle, gave “The Irishman” their best film of the year prize.

Those two wins are an enormous momentum boost for Martin Scorsese’s gangster epic, which, although critically-acclaimed and a no-brainer contender, has a few handicaps going against its chances 1) it’s a Netflix movie and, if you believe the reports that many in the academy’s voting body still have a bias against the streaming giant and wouldn’t vote for one of their movies, then we have a major problem and 2) “The Irishman” is not just 3 and a half hours long, but it will also test the patience of many who are expecting another vibrant portrait of the mob ala Goodfellas or Casino. With all the being said, yes, I do believe, “The Irishman” is our defacto front-runner.

However, Sam Mendes’ “1917” is gaining a lot of momentum, despite it not coming out until Christmas Day. Mendes’ WWI epic has the sort of visual pow that seems too irresistible for the Academy to ignore. The reviews from critics have also been very positive, with many more of the non-coastal elites about to churn in with their own thoughts in the coming days and weeks. I have been hearing a lot of positive feedback from AMPAS voters about this movie, so much so that I am starting to doubt if “The Irishman” will have the legs to stay ahead at the finish line.

Many are still dreaming up the possibility that Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon A Time in Hollywood,” which came out in July, may be able to gain the necessary amount of votes to win Best Picture. It’s a possibility, the film, a beautifully realized one, has been a critical and commercial success for Tarantino and features an Oscar-worthy performance from Brad Pitt — but will its early summer release hurt its chances? If you look at the top 8 contenders below, all of them were released in October/November/December. A lot has been said about the short attention spans some Academy voters may have… The last time a summer movie won Best Picture was 2009’s “The Hurt Locker.”

As far as I’m concerned, Bong Joon-ho’s “Parasite” has its Best Picture nomination locked. The film has become a phenomenon. Over the last few weeks, I’ve had people who would normally never talk about a foreign language movie, come up to me and ask about “Parasite.” Bong’s movie is building the kind of word-of-mouth that money can’t buy. No expertly orchestrated Oscar ad campaign can be as effective as raw word-of-mouth from movie audiences and “Parasite” is currently the king of that domain. And so, might I ask, what must happen for us to legitimately think of “Parasite” as legitimate Best Picture contender? After all, no foreign-language movie has ever managed to win the top prize in the Oscars’ 90-year history. Well, it has to go far beyond just word-of-mouth, its $18 million total at the Box-Office is impressive, but more people need to see it, voters who usually don’t watch foreign-language movies (sadly, there are plenty of them) need to watch it and, not just that, need to believe that it isn’t overhyped and actually deserves to win the top prize.

Finally, the fifth most likely contender is Noah Baumbach’s “Marriage Story.” I do want to elaborate further about “Marriage Story,” what with its unanimous rave reviews and the fact that pundits are, misguidingly, touting this film as a Best Picture frontrunner (it kind of isn’t). It has across-the-board immaculate performances, a deeply rich screenplay, and Baumbach’s recognizable directorial style, the latter a mix of both Woody Allen and Jean-Luc Godard’s sensibilities. But, despite the 135 minutes, the story does feel slight, as if you are always on the outside looking in, never fully able to immerse yourself into the drama at hand. It’s a film that you can respect much more than fully embrace. At the end of the day, this is still a Noah Baumbach movie, albeit one done with a little more restraint and conventional wisdom than, say, his previous films.

[Updated; 12.8.19]

FRONTRUNNERS:

1. The Irishman (Netflix)
2. 1917 (Universal)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
4. Parasite (Neon)
5. Marriage Story (Netflix)
6. Joker (Warner Bros.)
7. Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
8. Little Women (Sony)
9. The Farewell (A24)

MAJOR THREATS:

The Two Popes (Netflix)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
Bombshell (Lionsgate)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)
Ford v. Ferrari (Fox)

POSSIBILITIES:

Booksmart (Annapurna)
Just Mercy (Warner Bros.)
Rocketman (Paramount)
Hustlers (STX)
Uncut Gems (A24)
Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
Judy (Roadside Attractions)

LONG SHOTS:

Pain and Glory (Sony Classics)
The Lighthouse (A24)
Queen & Slim (Universal)
Waves (A24)
Honey Boy (Amazon)
Toy Story 4 (Disney)
The Aeronauts (Amazon)
The Report (Amazon)
The Lion King (Disney)
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)
Ad Astra (Fox)
A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)
The Good Liar (Warner Bros.)
Dark Waters (Focus Features)

STILL TO SEE:

Cats (Universal)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney)