It quite honestly looks like the Best Actor Oscar is currently Rami Malek's to lose. For the longest stretch I thought Bradley Cooper's performance in "A Star Is Born" was the one-to-beat, but Malek has been picking up considerable steam the last few weeks and 'Star' has been on the downslide.
Thanks to HE and its linking to 13 out of 20 Gold Derby spitballers now predicting that Malek will win the Best Actor in a Drama Golden Globe, which could severely dampen the momentum and buzz that Cooper has been building up the last few months.
Also, don't dismiss Ethan Hawke‘s performance in "First Reformed" as anything but a contender. He has won Best Actor trophies from no less than 22 regional critics groups, including the LAFC and NYFCC. The guy is well-loved, has been in the industry for the better part of 25 years and has yet to win an Oscar (despite being nominated twice for acting awards in "Training Day"and "Boyhood.")
If Malek's win does happen then we need a re-evaluation of the Best Actor Oscar odds which are currently as follows, again according to Gold Derby pundits consensus: