A clearer picture is being drawn. With Venice, Telluride, and Toronto mostly behind us, most of the 2026 Best Picture contenders have now screened. Yes, a few remain — “Marty Supreme,” “Wicked For Good,” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” among them — but there are no late-breaking shockers on the horizon. For now, it looks like we’ve got a legitimate three-way standoff at the top.
It’s been a relatively soft year for awards contenders, but that only makes the race more intriguing—surprises feel inevitable. Will Josh Safdie come through with “Marty Supreme”? Could critics finally turn on another James Cameron and “Avatar”? Is there a sleeper waiting in the wings, ready to crash the party? “Song Sung Blue”? “Train Dreams”?
It does make perfect sense for Gold Derby’s experts to still have “Sinners” at #1—seen below—it checks every box the Academy seems desperate to fill these days. It’s a rare blend of commercial success and critical acclaim, and tackles weighty, timely themes rooted in racial injustice and historical trauma—exactly the kind of topical resonance AMPAS has gravitated toward in its post-“Moonlight” era.
I’m more inclined to believe that Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” might be the actual frontrunner. Embargoed reviews mean we can’t know the full picture, maybe the over-the-top social media reactions are just a mirage, but let’s be clear, they will in all likelihood be glowing, this is a justifiable Best Picture contender. PTA has never won an Oscar despite eleven nominations, and Hollywood is ready to correct that. Whether it’s screenplay, director, or picture — or all three — this could finally be his year.
OBAA isn’t just a frontrunner because of the stats—it also feels like a film that taps into the current cultural mood. Some are already calling it “the defining film of our times.” Hyperbole? Maybe. I’ll only be seeing it next week, but from what’s being said, it’s very much about the state of America right now—delivered in a way that’s accessible, emotional, and, entertaining. If that description holds, it probably has a stronger path to the win than “Sinners” or “Hamnet.”
As for its two competitors: “Sinners,” despite the acclaim, is still a genre piece, and we all know how rarely the Academy embraces those. “Hamnet”? Well, Chloé Zhao already got her win with “Nomadland,” and her film might very well win the TIFF People’s Choice Award this weekend, but I just don’t see voters lining up to give her another so soon.
Which brings us back to PTA. He’s never won an Oscar, and the narrative of finally honoring him feels similar to when the Academy decided it was time to give Scorsese his statuette for “The Departed.” Oscar history is full of those “it’s their turn” moments, and if the campaign plays into that, don’t be surprised if PTA ends up the sentimental choice.
Hot off their heels, Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value.” The Norwegian filmmaker’s Cannes entry has become an early favorite thanks to great reviews, intimate subject matter, and what many see as a career-best turn from Renate Reinsve. It’s the kind of internationally-produced, quiet, and emotional drama that could make waves with Oscar voters. It played great at Telluride, and had a more subdued, but still positive bow at TIFF.
Don’t be surprised if Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident” cracks the early top ten. Fresh off a Palme d’Or win, and arriving at a time when Iran was dominating global headlines, the film carries both artistic weight and political urgency. Panahi’s ongoing defiance of his country’s filmmaking ban only adds to the narrative. Iran will, for obvious reasons, not submit the for the International Feature category, but if momentum holds, it could land in the Best Picture final 10.
Of the other fall premiered titles, I still think two Netflix titles will get in: Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly,” an effective George Clooney vehicle, will contend — reviews were mixed at Venice, but the response was much glowier at Telluride. Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite” was overpraised at Venice, but will likely still crack the top ten nominees given it’s Bigelow’s comeback, critics have her back and its upcoming NYFF bow will seal its fate.
That's my top 7: “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Hamnet,” “Sentimental Value,” “It Was Just An Accident,” “Jay Kelly,” “A House of Dynamite.” Three spots left.
So, yes, nomination ballots aren’t due until January 16. That’s four months — an eternity in awards campaigning. Every season has its scandals, hiccups, and unexpected turns. Drama is part of the game, whether anyone wants it or not.
Below are Gold Derby’s experts’ predictions. The only entry that puzzles me is “Bugonia” (#7) — I don’t think this entertainingly silly film is going anywhere close to a nomination.
