My Oscar Ballot (and I'm sticking with it)

I guess there really is nothing left to change my opinion on these, so bet the whole farm on it folks. I submitted these to the IndieWire poll of film critics, it seems like the oddest kind of year - full of close categories, yet I am pretty confident that I will be right with 90% of these. The Best Picture race is the toughest to distinguish: The Big Short won the PGA, The Revenant won the DGA and Spotlight won the SAG. But, all honestly, I wouldn't take for granted the PGA winner in any given year, time and time again people make that mistake and lose out on the bet they made. If The Big Short does in fact win it will be the worst Best Picture winner since Crash.

All this to say that we're headed into what might be a very exciting Oscar Night, the air of unpredictability is at its highest, but given that they usually find a way to make the telecast as dull and slow as possible, I think the excitement might get sucked right out. It'll probably be more exciting to find out through twitter while you're watching the OJ mini-series. I had an Oscar party last year at my place and I really tried to make it as less boring as possible, but one can only do so much with such an event. The ubiquitous #Oscarssowhite controversy might bring a bit more in terms of Chris Rock's whole shtick/monologue, but don't expect political discourse as much as him just poking fun at the academy in a "haha they're making fun of us and our mistakes and we deserve it" kind of way. Good lord, in Hollywood it always works out in the oddest, most political-correct way imaginable. If only Ricky Gervais could host every show ...

Best Picture
Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Director
Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Should Win: George Miller

Best Actress
Will Win: Brie Larson
Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Rooney Mara
Should Win: Rooney Mara

Best Actor
Will Win: Dicaprio
Should Win: Fassbender

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Stallone
Should Win: Rylance

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Carol

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Inside Out

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Inside Out
Should Win: Inside Out

Best Cinematography
Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: The Revenant

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Amy
Should Win: Amy

Best Foreign Film
Will Win: Son Of Saul
Should Win: Son Of Saul